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Molde II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Molde II
Molde II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
9/25/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 21Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Molde II56%
×Draw18%
HamKam II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde II
2.79
HamKam II
1.88

Molde II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

creates per match

Molde II
3.05
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Molde II
2.14
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Molde II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Molde II or draw
74%
Molde II or HamKam II
82%
Draw or HamKam II
44%

Winning margin

Molde II wins by 2+
37%
HamKam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Molde II 1+ goals
94%
Molde II 2+ goals
76%
Molde II 3+ goals
52%
HamKam II 1+ goals
85%
HamKam II 2+ goals
56%
HamKam II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Molde II (draw refunded)
69%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde II at home — creates 3.05, concedes 2.14 · 44 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde II attack 3.05 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.79

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Molde II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Molde II scores more
56%
level
18%
HamKam II scores more
26%

Molde II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Molde II vs HamKam II

Molde II beat HamKam II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.