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HamKam II vs Molde II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
5 – 5
Molde II
Molde II
4/17/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 2HIAS-Bana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II60%
×Draw17%
Molde II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
3.10
Molde II
1.92

HamKam II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

HamKam II
3.46
Molde II
1.98

allows per match

HamKam II
1.85
Molde II
2.74

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Molde II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Molde II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
77%
HamKam II or Molde II
83%
Draw or Molde II
40%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
41%
Molde II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
95%
HamKam II 2+ goals
81%
HamKam II 3+ goals
58%
Molde II 1+ goals
85%
Molde II 2+ goals
57%
Molde II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
73%
Molde II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Molde II away — creates 1.98, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Molde II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 3.10

Molde II attack 1.98 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HamKam II scores more
60%
level
17%
Molde II scores more
23%

HamKam II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HamKam II vs Molde II

HamKam II and Molde II drew 5-5 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at HIAS-Bana in Ottestad, Stange.