Mokpo City 1–0 Jeonju: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Mokpo City

1 – 0

Jeonju

3/27/2019

FA Cup · 3rd RoundMokpo International Football Center Main (Grass Ground A) (Mokpo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mokpo City19%

×Draw24%

Jeonju57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mokpo CityExpected goals in this matchJeonju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.67

Mokpo City

0.83

Jeonju

1.67

Jeonju creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Mokpo City

1.00

Jeonju

2.67

allows per match

Mokpo City

0.67

Jeonju

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mokpo City ↓

Jeonju →

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mokpo City or draw

43%

Mokpo City or Jeonju

76%

Draw or Jeonju

81%

Winning margin

Mokpo City wins by 2+

Jeonju wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Mokpo City 1+ goals

56%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

20%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

Jeonju 1+ goals

81%

Jeonju 2+ goals

50%

Jeonju 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

24%

Jeonju (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mokpo City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Jeonju away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mokpo City attack 1.00 + Jeonju defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Jeonju attack 2.67 + Mokpo City defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mokpo City scores more

19%

level

24%

Jeonju scores more

57%

Jeonju at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jeonju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff