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Jeonju vs Mokpo City — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mokpo City
Mokpo City
7/25/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 10Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju28%
×Draw25%
Mokpo City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.19
Mokpo City
1.61

Mokpo City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 111 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Mokpo City
1.13

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Mokpo City
1.47

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Mokpo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
53%
Jeonju or Mokpo City
75%
Draw or Mokpo City
72%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
11%
Mokpo City wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
70%
Jeonju 2+ goals
33%
Jeonju 3+ goals
12%
Mokpo City 1+ goals
80%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
48%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
37%
Mokpo City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Mokpo City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeonju scores more
28%
level
25%
Mokpo City scores more
47%

Mokpo City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mokpo City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Jeonju 2–1 Mokpo City

Jeonju beat Mokpo City 2-1 in K3 League on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.