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Moknine vs Sporting Ben Arous — Cup 2019

Moknine
Moknine
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arousadvanced
A. Sioud 59'
B. A. Nassim 13'
A. Lahziri 119' (pen)
W. Mejri 112'
J. Boubakri 74', 61'
4/21/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moknine20%
×Draw23%
Sporting Ben Arous57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.00
Sporting Ben Arous
1.83

Sporting Ben Arous creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moknine
0.67
Sporting Ben Arous
1.33

allows per match

Moknine
2.33
Sporting Ben Arous
1.33

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
43%
Moknine or Sporting Ben Arous
77%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
80%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
7%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
63%
Moknine 2+ goals
26%
Moknine 3+ goals
8%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
84%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
54%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
26%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 0.67 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Sporting Ben Arous attack 1.33 + Moknine defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Moknine scores more
20%
level
23%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
57%

Sporting Ben Arous at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
B. A. Nassim
59'
A. Sioud
61'
J. Boubakri
74'
J. Boubakri
112'
W. Mejri
119'
A. LahziriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Moknine 2–2 Sporting Ben Arous

Moknine and Sporting Ben Arous drew 2-2 in Cup on April 21, 2024.

Goals: B. A. Nassim (13'), A. Sioud (59'), J. Boubakri (61', 74'), W. Mejri (112'), A. Lahziri (119' pen).

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.