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Moknine vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Moknine
Moknine
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
4/29/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Moknine51%
×Draw29%
Sporting Ben Arous19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moknine
1.27
Sporting Ben Arous
0.66

Moknine creates 92% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 46 away

creates per match

Moknine
1.27
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Moknine
0.78
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moknine or draw
81%
Moknine or Sporting Ben Arous
71%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
49%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+
24%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals
72%
Moknine 2+ goals
36%
Moknine 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
48%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
14%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)
73%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moknine scores more
51%
level
29%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
19%

Moknine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moknine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moknine vs Sporting Ben Arous

Moknine beat Sporting Ben Arous 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mongi-Slim in Moknine.