Moknine 1–2 AS Marsa: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Moknine

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AS Marsa

11/9/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Mongi-Slim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Moknine33%

×Draw30%

AS Marsa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoknineExpected goals in this matchAS Marsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.08

Moknine

1.01

AS Marsa

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

1.27

creates per match

1.38

0.78

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Moknine

1.27

AS Marsa

1.38

allows per match

Moknine

0.78

AS Marsa

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moknine+0.00on par

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moknine ↓

AS Marsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moknine or draw

63%

Moknine or AS Marsa

70%

Draw or AS Marsa

67%

Winning margin

Moknine wins by 2+

13%

AS Marsa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Moknine 1+ goals

64%

Moknine 2+ goals

27%

Moknine 3+ goals

8%

AS Marsa 1+ goals

66%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

29%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Moknine (draw refunded)

47%

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moknine at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moknine attack 1.27 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.01

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + Moknine defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moknine scores more

33%

level

30%

AS Marsa scores more

37%

AS Marsa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff