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AS Marsa vs Moknine — Ligue 2 2020

AS Marsa
AS Marsa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moknine
Moknine
3/1/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

AS Marsa63%
×Draw23%
Moknine15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Marsa
1.77
Moknine
0.71

AS Marsa creates 149% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 49 away

creates per match

AS Marsa
1.96
Moknine
0.90

allows per match

AS Marsa
0.52
Moknine
1.57

finishing

AS Marsa+0.00on par
Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Marsa ↓

Moknine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AS Marsa or draw
85%
AS Marsa or Moknine
77%
Draw or Moknine
37%

Winning margin

AS Marsa wins by 2+
36%
Moknine wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Marsa 1+ goals
83%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
53%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
26%
Moknine 1+ goals
51%
Moknine 2+ goals
16%
Moknine 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Marsa (draw refunded)
81%
Moknine (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Marsa at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.52 · 25 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Marsa attack 1.96 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Moknine attack 0.90 + AS Marsa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AS Marsa scores more
63%
level
23%
Moknine scores more
15%

AS Marsa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AS Marsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Marsa vs Moknine

AS Marsa and Moknine drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Abdelaziz Chtioui in La Marsa.