Mohun Bagan 1–0 Minerva Punjab: Result & Stats

Mohun Bagan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Minerva Punjab

2/9/2020

I-League · Round 12Salt Lake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mohun Bagan49%

×Draw23%

Minerva Punjab27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohun BaganExpected goals in this matchMinerva Punjab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.26

Mohun Bagan

1.76

Minerva Punjab

1.26

Mohun Bagan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 33 away

2.22

creates per match

1.52

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mohun Bagan

2.22

Minerva Punjab

1.52

allows per match

Mohun Bagan

1.00

Minerva Punjab

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohun Bagan ↓

Minerva Punjab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mohun Bagan or draw

73%

Mohun Bagan or Minerva Punjab

77%

Draw or Minerva Punjab

51%

Winning margin

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

27%

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

83%

Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

52%

Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

26%

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

72%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

36%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

64%

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohun Bagan attack 2.22 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.76

Minerva Punjab attack 1.52 + Mohun Bagan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mohun Bagan scores more

49%

level

23%

Minerva Punjab scores more

27%

Mohun Bagan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff