Minerva Punjab 1–1 Mohun Bagan: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mohun Bagan

1/14/2020

I-League · Round 8Guru Nanak Stadium (Ludhiana, Punjab)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Minerva Punjab29%

×Draw25%

Mohun Bagan46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchMohun Bagan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.57

Minerva Punjab

1.20

Mohun Bagan

1.57

Mohun Bagan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

1.82

creates per match

2.14

1.00

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.82

Mohun Bagan

2.14

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.00

Mohun Bagan

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

Mohun Bagan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

54%

Minerva Punjab or Mohun Bagan

75%

Draw or Mohun Bagan

71%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

12%

Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

70%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

34%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

12%

Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

79%

Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

46%

Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

39%

Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.82 + Mohun Bagan defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

29%

level

25%

Mohun Bagan scores more

46%

Mohun Bagan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff