Mohammedan 1–1 Goa: Result & Stats

Mohammedan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Goa

A. Gómez 66' (pen)

A. Sadiku 90+4'

9/21/2024

Indian Super League · Round 2Kishore Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mohammedan19%

×Draw23%

Goa57%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MohammedanExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.75

Mohammedan

0.90

Goa

1.75

Goa creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

0.40

creates per match

1.30

2.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Mohammedan

0.40

Goa

1.30

allows per match

Mohammedan

2.20

Goa

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw

43%

Mohammedan or Goa

77%

Draw or Goa

81%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+

6%

Goa wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals

59%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

23%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

6%

Goa 1+ goals

83%

Goa 2+ goals

52%

Goa 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

25%

Goa (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Goa away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 0.40 + Goa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Goa attack 1.30 + Mohammedan defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mohammedan scores more

19%

level

23%

Goa scores more

57%

Goa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

França

Mohammedan · F

8.2

Match Events

35'

Nim Dorjee Tamang

37'

Dejan Dražić

46'

S. Fernandes← N. Dorjee

46'

R. Borges← A. Chhetri

46'

A. Sangwan← B. Fernandes

54'

57'

59'

64'

66'

A. GómezPenalty

67'

Laxmikant Kattimani

67'

C. McHugh← Odei Onaindia

69'

L. Khiangte← A. Singh

70'

87'

87'

89'

90+4'

A. Sadiku↳ A. Sangwan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MohammedanGoa

Overview

46%Possession54%

22Total Shots11

4Corners5

5Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots11

7On Target4

11Off Target4

4Blocked3

15Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

370Total Passes435

280Accurate Passes351

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0