Goa 2–0 Mohammedan: Result & Stats

Goa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mohammedan

P. Chettri 86' (OG)

Iker Guarrotxena 40'

3/4/2025

Indian Super League · Round 25Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Goa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Goa66%

×Draw20%

Mohammedan14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoaExpected goals in this matchMohammedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.81

Goa

2.06

Mohammedan

0.81

Goa creates 154% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.70

creates per match

0.58

1.05

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Goa

1.70

Mohammedan

0.58

allows per match

Goa

1.05

Mohammedan

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goa+0.00on par

Mohammedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goa ↓

Mohammedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Goa or draw

86%

Goa or Mohammedan

80%

Draw or Mohammedan

34%

Winning margin

Goa wins by 2+

42%

Mohammedan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Goa 1+ goals

87%

Goa 2+ goals

61%

Goa 3+ goals

34%

Mohammedan 1+ goals

56%

Mohammedan 2+ goals

19%

Mohammedan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Goa (draw refunded)

83%

Mohammedan (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goa at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Mohammedan away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goa attack 1.70 + Mohammedan defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mohammedan attack 0.58 + Goa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Goa scores more

66%

level

20%

Mohammedan scores more

14%

Goa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Dražić

Goa · M

8.2

Match Events

40'

Iker Guarrotxena↳ A. Chhetri

60'

Borja Herrera← Odei Onaindia

61'

61'

68'

78'

80'

M. Schmerböck← M. Singh

82'

P. Vishwas← R. Borges

86'

P. ChettriOwn goal

90'

M. Yasir← Iker Guarrotxena

90'

R. Hansda← Amarjit Singh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoaMohammedan

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots7

5Corners2

4Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots7

5On Target1

8Off Target3

6Blocked3

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

494Total Passes397

416Accurate Passes305

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3