Mohammedan Dhaka 2–2 Sheikh Jamal: Result & Stats

Mohammedan Dhaka

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sheikh Jamal

1/31/2023

Federation Cup · Group Stage - 2Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka56%

×Draw21%

Sheikh Jamal23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohammedan DhakaExpected goals in this matchSheikh Jamal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.34

Mohammedan Dhaka

2.16

Sheikh Jamal

1.34

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.93

creates per match

1.75

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka

2.93

Sheikh Jamal

1.75

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka

0.93

Sheikh Jamal

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Sheikh Jamal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw

77%

Mohammedan Dhaka or Sheikh Jamal

79%

Draw or Sheikh Jamal

44%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+

34%

Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals

88%

Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals

63%

Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals

36%

Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals

74%

Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals

39%

Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)

70%

Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 2.93 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.16

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.75 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more

56%

level

21%

Sheikh Jamal scores more

23%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mohammedan Dhaka vs Sheikh Jamal

Mohammedan Dhaka and Sheikh Jamal drew 2-2 in Federation Cup on January 31, 2023.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium in Gopalganj.

Mohammedan Dhaka vs Sheikh Jamal — Federation Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mohammedan Dhaka vs Sheikh Jamal