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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Sheikh Jamal — Premier League 2019

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
1/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka46%
×Draw24%
Sheikh Jamal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.67
Sheikh Jamal
1.30

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 56 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.97
Sheikh Jamal
1.45

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.16
Sheikh Jamal
1.38

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Sheikh Jamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
70%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Sheikh Jamal
76%
Draw or Sheikh Jamal
54%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
24%
Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
81%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
50%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
23%
Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
73%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
37%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
61%
Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.97 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
46%
level
24%
Sheikh Jamal scores more
30%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mohammedan Dhaka 1–1 Sheikh Jamal

Mohammedan Dhaka and Sheikh Jamal drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 20, 2023.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.