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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Brothers Union — Premier League 2019

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Brothers Union
Brothers Union
5/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka59%
×Draw21%
Brothers Union20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
2.08
Brothers Union
1.11

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 87% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 53 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.97
Brothers Union
1.06

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
1.16
Brothers Union
2.19

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Brothers Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
80%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Brothers Union
79%
Draw or Brothers Union
41%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
36%
Brothers Union wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
87%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
61%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
34%
Brothers Union 1+ goals
67%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
30%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
75%
Brothers Union (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.97 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.08

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
59%
level
21%
Brothers Union scores more
20%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mohammedan Dhaka 3–3 Brothers Union

Mohammedan Dhaka and Brothers Union drew 3-3 in Premier League on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.