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Brothers Union vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Federation Cup 2020

Brothers Union
Brothers Union
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhakaadvanced
5/12/2026Federation CupFederation Cup · Semi-finalsMuktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brothers Union38%
×Draw25%
Mohammedan Dhaka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brothers Union
1.40
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brothers Union
1.63
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.64

allows per match

Brothers Union
1.13
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.18

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw
63%
Brothers Union or Mohammedan Dhaka
75%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
62%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+
17%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals
75%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
41%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
17%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
75%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
40%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)
51%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.63 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.64 + Brothers Union defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brothers Union scores more
38%
level
25%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
37%

Brothers Union at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brothers Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Brothers Union 1–2 Mohammedan Dhaka

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Brothers Union 2-1 in Federation Cup on May 12, 2026.

The match was played at Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium in Rajshahi.