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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Brothers Union — Federation Cup 2020

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
2 – 1
Brothers Union
Brothers Union
1/30/2024Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka79%
×Draw14%
Brothers Union8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
2.71
Brothers Union
0.72

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 276% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
2.93
Brothers Union
0.50

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
0.93
Brothers Union
2.50

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Brothers Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
92%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Brothers Union
86%
Draw or Brothers Union
21%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
58%
Brothers Union wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
93%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
75%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
50%
Brothers Union 1+ goals
51%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
16%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
91%
Brothers Union (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 2.93 + Brothers Union defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.71

Brothers Union attack 0.50 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
79%
level
14%
Brothers Union scores more
8%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Mohammedan Dhaka 2–1 Brothers Union

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Brothers Union 2-1 in Federation Cup on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium in Gopalganj.