Mohammedan Dhaka 0–0 Abahani Chittagong

Mohammedan Dhaka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Abahani Chittagong

1/26/2024

Premier League · Round 5Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka51%

×Draw23%

Abahani Chittagong26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohammedan DhakaExpected goals in this matchAbahani Chittagong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.25

Mohammedan Dhaka

1.83

Abahani Chittagong

1.25

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 46% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 67 away

1.97

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka

1.97

Abahani Chittagong

1.33

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka

1.16

Abahani Chittagong

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Abahani Chittagong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw

74%

Mohammedan Dhaka or Abahani Chittagong

77%

Draw or Abahani Chittagong

49%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+

28%

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals

84%

Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals

54%

Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals

28%

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

71%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

36%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)

66%

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.97 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.83

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more

51%

level

23%

Abahani Chittagong scores more

26%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff