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Abahani Chittagong vs Mohammedan Dhaka — Premier League 2019

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
1/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Abahani Chittagong28%
×Draw25%
Mohammedan Dhaka47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
1.17
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.58

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 35% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 77 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.20
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.57

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.60
Mohammedan Dhaka
1.13

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Mohammedan Dhaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
53%
Abahani Chittagong or Mohammedan Dhaka
75%
Draw or Mohammedan Dhaka
72%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
11%
Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
69%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
33%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
11%
Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
79%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
47%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
38%
Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches

Mohammedan Dhaka away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 1.57 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
28%
level
25%
Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
47%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abahani Chittagong 1–5 Mohammedan Dhaka

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Abahani Chittagong 5-1 in Premier League on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Mymensingh Stadium in Mymensingh.