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Mohammedan Dhaka vs Abahani Chittagong — Federation Cup 2020

Mohammedan Dhaka
Mohammedan Dhaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
1/16/2024Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mohammedan Dhaka73%
×Draw16%
Abahani Chittagong11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan Dhaka
2.46
Abahani Chittagong
0.83

Mohammedan Dhaka creates 196% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
2.93
Abahani Chittagong
0.73

allows per match

Mohammedan Dhaka
0.93
Abahani Chittagong
2.00

finishing

Mohammedan Dhaka+0.00on par
Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan Dhaka ↓

Abahani Chittagong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mohammedan Dhaka or draw
89%
Mohammedan Dhaka or Abahani Chittagong
84%
Draw or Abahani Chittagong
27%

Winning margin

Mohammedan Dhaka wins by 2+
50%
Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mohammedan Dhaka 1+ goals
91%
Mohammedan Dhaka 2+ goals
70%
Mohammedan Dhaka 3+ goals
44%
Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
56%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
20%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan Dhaka (draw refunded)
87%
Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan Dhaka at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan Dhaka attack 2.93 + Abahani Chittagong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Abahani Chittagong attack 0.73 + Mohammedan Dhaka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mohammedan Dhaka scores more
73%
level
16%
Abahani Chittagong scores more
11%

Mohammedan Dhaka at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mohammedan Dhaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Mohammedan Dhaka 2–1 Abahani Chittagong

Mohammedan Dhaka beat Abahani Chittagong 2-1 in Federation Cup on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium in Gopalganj.