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Mohácsi TE vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Mohácsi TE
Mohácsi TE
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
11/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Újvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mohácsi TE38%
×Draw27%
Érdi VSE35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohácsi TE
1.32
Érdi VSE
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Mohácsi TE
1.07
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Mohácsi TE
1.13
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohácsi TE ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mohácsi TE or draw
65%
Mohácsi TE or Érdi VSE
73%
Draw or Érdi VSE
62%

Winning margin

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+
17%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals
73%
Mohácsi TE 2+ goals
38%
Mohácsi TE 3+ goals
15%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
72%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
36%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)
52%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohácsi TE at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohácsi TE attack 1.07 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Mohácsi TE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mohácsi TE scores more
38%
level
27%
Érdi VSE scores more
35%

Mohácsi TE at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mohácsi TE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Mohácsi TE 0–2 Érdi VSE

Érdi VSE beat Mohácsi TE 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Újvárosi Stadion in Mohács.