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Érdi VSE vs Mohácsi TE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mohácsi TE
Mohácsi TE
5/19/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Novák Ferenc Érdi Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Érdi VSE56%
×Draw23%
Mohácsi TE21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
1.80
Mohácsi TE
1.00

Érdi VSE creates 80% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.60
Mohácsi TE
0.73

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.27
Mohácsi TE
2.00

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Mohácsi TE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
79%
Érdi VSE or Mohácsi TE
77%
Draw or Mohácsi TE
44%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
32%
Mohácsi TE wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
83%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
54%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
27%
Mohácsi TE 1+ goals
63%
Mohácsi TE 2+ goals
26%
Mohácsi TE 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
73%
Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.60 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + Érdi VSE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
56%
level
23%
Mohácsi TE scores more
21%

Érdi VSE at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Érdi VSE 3–0 Mohácsi TE

Érdi VSE beat Mohácsi TE 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Novák Ferenc Érdi Sportközpont in Érd.