Mogi Mirim 0–1 Independente SP: Result & Stats

Mogi Mirim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independente SP

I. Niltton 68'

4/25/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mogi Mirim32%

×Draw26%

Independente SP42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mogi MirimExpected goals in this matchIndependente SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

Mogi Mirim

1.23

Independente SP

1.46

Independente SP creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

1.73

1.20

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Mogi Mirim

1.40

Independente SP

1.73

allows per match

Mogi Mirim

1.20

Independente SP

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mogi Mirim+0.00on par

Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mogi Mirim ↓

Independente SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mogi Mirim or draw

58%

Mogi Mirim or Independente SP

74%

Draw or Independente SP

68%

Winning margin

Mogi Mirim wins by 2+

13%

Independente SP wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Mogi Mirim 1+ goals

71%

Mogi Mirim 2+ goals

35%

Mogi Mirim 3+ goals

13%

Independente SP 1+ goals

77%

Independente SP 2+ goals

43%

Independente SP 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mogi Mirim (draw refunded)

43%

Independente SP (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mogi Mirim at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mogi Mirim attack 1.40 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Mogi Mirim defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mogi Mirim scores more

32%

level

26%

Independente SP scores more

42%

Independente SP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

I. Niltton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff