Independente SP 4–1 Mogi Mirim: Result & Stats

Independente SP

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mogi Mirim

Hiago 86', 27'

V. Peres Silva 77'

I. Niltton 11'

Pedro Heloi 66'

5/30/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP63%

×Draw19%

Mogi Mirim18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente SPExpected goals in this matchMogi Mirim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.24

Independente SP

2.44

Mogi Mirim

1.24

Independente SP creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

3.07

creates per match

1.60

0.87

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Independente SP

3.07

Mogi Mirim

1.60

allows per match

Independente SP

0.87

Mogi Mirim

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par

Mogi Mirim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Mogi Mirim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw

82%

Independente SP or Mogi Mirim

81%

Draw or Mogi Mirim

37%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+

42%

Mogi Mirim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals

91%

Independente SP 2+ goals

70%

Independente SP 3+ goals

43%

Mogi Mirim 1+ goals

71%

Mogi Mirim 2+ goals

35%

Mogi Mirim 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)

78%

Mogi Mirim (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Mogi Mirim away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Mogi Mirim defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.44

Mogi Mirim attack 1.60 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independente SP scores more

63%

level

19%

Mogi Mirim scores more

18%

Independente SP at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

27'

66'

77'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff