Moghreb Tetouan 2–2 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Moghreb Tetouan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Wydad AC

M. Kamal 36'

Hicham 34'

A. El Kaabi 17'

S. Msuva 13'

3/11/2021

Botola Pro · Round 9Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan32%

×Draw29%

Wydad AC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moghreb TetouanExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.13

Moghreb Tetouan

1.02

Wydad AC

1.13

Wydad AC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 114 away

1.10

creates per match

1.27

0.98

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan

1.10

Wydad AC

1.27

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan

0.98

Wydad AC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw

62%

Moghreb Tetouan or Wydad AC

71%

Draw or Wydad AC

68%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

12%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

64%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

27%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

8%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

68%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

31%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

46%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.10 + Wydad AC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wydad AC attack 1.27 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

32%

level

29%

Wydad AC scores more

38%

Wydad AC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

13'

17'

26'

34'

36'

42'

62'

M. Ounajem← Muaid Ellafi

73'

S. Aznabet← M. El Yousfi

83'

A. Hassouni← S. El Moudane

85'

T. Safsafi← Hicham

85'

S. Chilunda← M. Kamal

89'

A. Lamrabat← N. El Maimouni

89'

Y. Tourabi← A. Jabroun

90'

A. Lamrabat

Moghreb

Wydad

26

29

22

30

19

▼

Moudane

18

Karti

28

▼

Ellafi

5

Jabrane

11

⚽

Msuva

9

⚽

14

13

28

3

5

33

18

▼

Maimouni

24

Hassnaoui

11

⚽

▼

Kamal

88

▼

Yousfi

20

⚽

▼

Hicham

97

▼

Jabroun

Manager: J. Drideb

73'▲S. Aznabet←▼M. El Yousfi

85'▲T. Safsafi←▼Hicham

85'▲S. Chilunda←▼M. Kamal

89'▲A. Lamrabat←▼N. El Maimouni

89'▲Y. Tourabi←▼A. Jabroun

Moghreb Tetouan substitutes

6Aznabet8Safsafi43Chilunda15Lamrabat99Tourabi1Bounaga14Bouaadli27Gueye32Chakhsi

Manager: F. Benzarti

62'▲M. Ounajem←▼Muaid Ellafi

83'▲A. Hassouni←▼S. El Moudane

Wydad AC substitutes

7Ounajem20Hassouni3Dari4Saidi6Serrhat37El-Moutaraji17Aouk24Rahim27Sioudi