Moghreb Tetouan 1–0 Kawkab Marrakech

Moghreb Tetouan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kawkab Marrakech

I. Khannouss 28'

2/20/2022

Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan51%

×Draw30%

Kawkab Marrakech19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moghreb TetouanExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.62

Moghreb Tetouan

1.24

Kawkab Marrakech

0.62

Moghreb Tetouan creates 100% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 74 away

1.53

creates per match

0.77

0.47

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan

1.53

Kawkab Marrakech

0.77

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan

0.47

Kawkab Marrakech

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw

81%

Moghreb Tetouan or Kawkab Marrakech

70%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

49%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

24%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

71%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

35%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

13%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

46%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

13%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

73%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 30 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.95 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.53 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.77 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

51%

level

30%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

19%

Moghreb Tetouan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

I. Khannouss

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff