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Kawkab Marrakech vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
2/23/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 19Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech44%
×Draw28%
Moghreb Tetouan27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.29
Moghreb Tetouan
0.95

Kawkab Marrakech creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.20
Moghreb Tetouan
0.90

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.00
Moghreb Tetouan
1.37

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
73%
Kawkab Marrakech or Moghreb Tetouan
72%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
56%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
20%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
72%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
37%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
14%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
61%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
25%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
62%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.20 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.90 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
44%
level
28%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
27%

Kawkab Marrakech at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Ayoub Lakhal
42'
Amadou SamakePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Moghreb Tetouan

Kawkab Marrakech and Moghreb Tetouan drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on February 23, 2019.

Goals: Ayoub Lakhal (12'), Amadou Samake (42' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).