Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 FUS Rabat: Result & Stats

Moghreb Tetouan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FUS Rabat

6/20/2023

Botola Pro · Round 29Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan35%

×Draw30%

FUS Rabat35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moghreb TetouanExpected goals in this matchFUS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.04

Moghreb Tetouan

1.05

FUS Rabat

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

1.08

creates per match

1.09

0.99

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan

1.08

FUS Rabat

1.09

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan

0.99

FUS Rabat

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

FUS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw

65%

Moghreb Tetouan or FUS Rabat

70%

Draw or FUS Rabat

65%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

14%

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

65%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

28%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

9%

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

65%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

28%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

50%

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.08 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

35%

level

30%

FUS Rabat scores more

35%

Moghreb Tetouan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff