FUS Rabat 1–1 Moghreb Tetouan: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Moghreb Tetouan

2/21/2024

Botola Pro · Round 20Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

FUS Rabat46%

×Draw28%

Moghreb Tetouan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchMoghreb Tetouan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.89

FUS Rabat

1.31

Moghreb Tetouan

0.89

FUS Rabat creates 47% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 91 away

1.26

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.26

Moghreb Tetouan

0.89

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.88

Moghreb Tetouan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

75%

FUS Rabat or Moghreb Tetouan

72%

Draw or Moghreb Tetouan

54%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

22%

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

73%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

38%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

59%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

22%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

65%

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

46%

level

28%

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

25%

FUS Rabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff