Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moghreb Tetouan vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
2 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
5/5/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Stade Saniat Rmel (Tétouan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan55%
×Draw26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.50
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.76

Moghreb Tetouan creates 97% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
81%
Moghreb Tetouan or Chabab RIF Hoceima
74%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
45%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
78%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
44%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
19%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
53%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
74%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
55%
level
26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
19%

Moghreb Tetouan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 2–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Moghreb Tetouan beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 2-1 in Botola Pro on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel (Tétouan).