Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–4 Moghreb Tetouan

Chabab RIF Hoceima

FT

1 – 4

Moghreb Tetouan

12/15/2018

Botola Pro · Round 12Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%

×Draw27%

Moghreb Tetouan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab RIF HoceimaExpected goals in this matchMoghreb Tetouan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.31

Moghreb Tetouan

1.18

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.27

Moghreb Tetouan

0.89

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.47

Moghreb Tetouan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw

67%

Chabab RIF Hoceima or Moghreb Tetouan

73%

Draw or Moghreb Tetouan

60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

18%

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

73%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

38%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

14%

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

69%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

33%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

54%

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

40%

level

27%

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff