Modriča 5–0 FK Jedinstvo Brcko: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

5 – 0

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

9/28/2019

1st League - RS · RS - 8Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić (Modriča)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Modriča68%

×Draw18%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchFK Jedinstvo Brcko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.99

Modriča

2.40

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.99

Modriča creates 142% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 21 away

1.70

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.86

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

86%

Modriča or FK Jedinstvo Brcko

82%

Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko

32%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

46%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

91%

Modriča 2+ goals

69%

Modriča 3+ goals

42%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

63%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

26%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

83%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.40

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Modriča scores more

68%

level

18%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

14%

Modriča at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff