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FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FT
1 – 4
Modriča
Modriča
5/22/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 29Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko50%
×Draw24%
Modriča26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.69
Modriča
1.15

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 47% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 71 away

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.05
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.59
Modriča
2.34

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw
74%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Modriča
76%
Draw or Modriča
50%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
27%
Modriča wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
82%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
50%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
24%
Modriča 1+ goals
68%
Modriča 2+ goals
32%
Modriča 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
66%
Modriča (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

Modriča attack 0.70 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
50%
level
24%
Modriča scores more
26%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1–4 Modriča

Modriča beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 4-1 in 1st League - RS on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Brčko.