Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Modriča vs Drina Zvornik — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
5/13/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 30Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča58%
×Draw23%
Drina Zvornik19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.77
Drina Zvornik
0.91

Modriča creates 95% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 96 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Drina Zvornik
0.71

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Drina Zvornik
1.83

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Drina Zvornik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
81%
Modriča or Drina Zvornik
77%
Draw or Drina Zvornik
42%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
33%
Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
83%
Modriča 2+ goals
53%
Modriča 3+ goals
26%
Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
60%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
23%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
75%
Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Modriča scores more
58%
level
23%
Drina Zvornik scores more
19%

Modriča at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 2–0 Drina Zvornik

Modriča beat Drina Zvornik 2-0 in 1st League - RS on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.