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Drina Zvornik vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Modriča
Modriča
4/27/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Drina Zvornik70%
×Draw19%
Modriča11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drina Zvornik
2.13
Modriča
0.71

Drina Zvornik creates 200% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 71 away

creates per match

Drina Zvornik
1.93
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Drina Zvornik
0.73
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw
89%
Drina Zvornik or Modriča
81%
Draw or Modriča
30%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
45%
Modriča wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
88%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
63%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
35%
Modriča 1+ goals
51%
Modriča 2+ goals
16%
Modriča 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
86%
Modriča (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.13

Modriča attack 0.70 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more
70%
level
19%
Modriča scores more
11%

Drina Zvornik at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drina Zvornik vs Modriča

Modriča beat Drina Zvornik 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.