Modriča 4–0 Budućnost Pilica: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

4 – 0

Budućnost Pilica

11/14/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Modriča78%

×Draw14%

Budućnost Pilica8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Pilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.76

Modriča

2.69

Budućnost Pilica

0.76

Modriča creates 254% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 15 away

1.70

creates per match

0.40

1.11

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

Budućnost Pilica

0.40

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

Budućnost Pilica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Budućnost Pilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

92%

Modriča or Budućnost Pilica

86%

Draw or Budućnost Pilica

22%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

56%

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

93%

Modriča 2+ goals

74%

Modriča 3+ goals

49%

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

53%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

18%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

90%

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.69

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Modriča scores more

78%

level

14%

Budućnost Pilica scores more

8%

Modriča at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff