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Budućnost Pilica vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Modriča
Modriča
5/21/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 29Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica39%
×Draw24%
Modriča38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Pilica
1.60
Modriča
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 71 away

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica
0.87
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica
2.47
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw
62%
Budućnost Pilica or Modriča
76%
Draw or Modriča
61%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
19%
Modriča wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
80%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
47%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
22%
Modriča 1+ goals
79%
Modriča 2+ goals
47%
Modriča 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
51%
Modriča (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Modriča attack 0.70 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more
39%
level
24%
Modriča scores more
38%

Budućnost Pilica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Budućnost Pilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Pilica vs Modriča

Modriča beat Budućnost Pilica 3-2 in 1st League - RS on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica in Donja Pilica.