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Modriča vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
5/15/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 31Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Modriča47%
×Draw25%
BSK Banja Luka28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.60
BSK Banja Luka
1.19

Modriča creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 48 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
72%
Modriča or BSK Banja Luka
75%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
53%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
24%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
80%
Modriča 2+ goals
47%
Modriča 3+ goals
22%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
70%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
33%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
62%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Modriča scores more
47%
level
25%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
28%

Modriča at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 2–0 BSK Banja Luka

Modriča beat BSK Banja Luka 2-0 in 1st League - RS on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.