BSK Banja Luka 1–2 Modriča: Result & Stats

BSK Banja Luka

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Modriča

11/3/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion Čaire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka71%

×Draw18%

Modriča11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchModriča

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.76

BSK Banja Luka

2.24

Modriča

0.76

BSK Banja Luka creates 195% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 71 away

2.14

creates per match

0.70

0.82

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka

2.14

Modriča

0.70

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka

0.82

Modriča

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Modriča →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw

89%

BSK Banja Luka or Modriča

82%

Draw or Modriča

29%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+

47%

Modriča wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals

89%

BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals

65%

BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals

38%

Modriča 1+ goals

53%

Modriča 2+ goals

18%

Modriča 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)

86%

Modriča (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.24

Modriča attack 0.70 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more

71%

level

18%

Modriča scores more

11%

BSK Banja Luka at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff