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Modern Coast Rangers vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
2 – 3
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
4/21/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers51%
×Draw27%
Kangemi All Stars22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.47
Kangemi All Stars
0.86

Modern Coast Rangers creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.22
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.72
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
78%
Modern Coast Rangers or Kangemi All Stars
73%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
49%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
26%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
18%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
58%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
21%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
70%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.22 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
51%
level
27%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
22%

Modern Coast Rangers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modern Coast Rangers vs Kangemi All Stars

Kangemi All Stars beat Modern Coast Rangers 3-2 in Super League on April 21, 2018.