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Kangemi All Stars vs Modern Coast Rangers — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
1 – 0
Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
9/9/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kangemi All Stars47%
×Draw27%
Modern Coast Rangers26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.38
Modern Coast Rangers
0.95

Kangemi All Stars creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.25
Modern Coast Rangers
0.89

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.00
Modern Coast Rangers
1.50

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
74%
Kangemi All Stars or Modern Coast Rangers
73%
Draw or Modern Coast Rangers
53%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
22%
Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
75%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
40%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
16%
Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
61%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
25%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
64%
Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.25 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.89 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
47%
level
27%
Modern Coast Rangers scores more
26%

Kangemi All Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kangemi All Stars 1–0 Modern Coast Rangers

Kangemi All Stars beat Modern Coast Rangers 1-0 in Super League on September 9, 2018.