Modena 2–1 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mantova

D. Tonoli 59'

A. Sersanti 14'

D. Mensah 81'

3/21/2026

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Modena45%

×Draw27%

Mantova28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.01

Modena

1.37

Mantova

1.01

Modena creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.16

creates per match

1.04

0.98

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Modena

1.16

Mantova

1.04

allows per match

Modena

0.98

Mantova

1.58

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Modena-0.24scores less

Mantova-0.04on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Modena or draw

72%

Modena or Mantova

73%

Draw or Mantova

55%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

21%

Mantova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

75%

Modena 2+ goals

40%

Modena 3+ goals

16%

Mantova 1+ goals

64%

Mantova 2+ goals

27%

Mantova 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

62%

Mantova (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.16 + Mantova defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mantova attack 1.04 + Modena defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Modena scores more

45%

level

27%

Mantova scores more

28%

Modena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

D. Tonoli

Modena · D

7.9

Match Events

14'

A. Sersanti↳ E. Gliozzi

31'

Francesco Zampano

46'

S. Wiafe← A. Sersanti

46'

D. Bragantini← N. Buso

46'

M. Caprini← T. Marras

59'

D. Tonoli

62'

Nicolò Radaelli

65'

T. Maggioni← N. Radaelli

70'

G. Ambrosino← E. Gliozzi

70'

G. Beyuku← F. Zampano

76'

D. Mensah← A. Dembele

77'

C. Falletti← L. Mancuso

79'

Rachid Kouda

81'

D. Mensah↳ R. Kouda

87'

M. Cotali← L. Zanimacchia

89'

Alessio Castellini

90+5'

Davis Mensah

90'

P. Mendes← M. De Luca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaMantova

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots8

0.65Expected Goals (xG)0.84

1Corners4

14Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

9Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

325Total Passes556

229Accurate Passes471

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-1.55Goals Prevented-1.55

Discipline

14Fouls20

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Serie B: Modena 2–1 Mantova

Modena beat Mantova 2-1 in Serie B on March 21, 2026.

Goals: A. Sersanti (14'), D. Tonoli (59'), D. Mensah (81').

Mantova controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Modena 2–1 Mantova