Mantova 0–0 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Modena

11/30/2024

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova36%

×Draw28%

Modena36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.18

Mantova

1.17

Modena

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.23

creates per match

1.31

1.04

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Mantova

1.23

Modena

1.31

allows per match

Mantova

1.04

Modena

1.11

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more

Modena-0.58scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

64%

Mantova or Modena

72%

Draw or Modena

64%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

15%

Modena wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

69%

Mantova 2+ goals

33%

Mantova 3+ goals

11%

Modena 1+ goals

69%

Modena 2+ goals

33%

Modena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

50%

Modena (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Modena away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Modena defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Modena attack 1.31 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mantova scores more

36%

level

28%

Modena scores more

36%

Mantova at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Festa

Mantova · G

8.3

Match Events

10'

M. Solini← F. Brignani

27'

32'

35'

51'

54'

Pedro MendesGoal cancelled

66'

L. Mancuso← A. Fiori

67'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

67'

D. Wieser← M. Aramu

70'

K. Bozhanaj← G. Caso

70'

E. Gliozzi← Pedro Mendes

71'

77'

81'

81'

81'

R. Idrissi← A. Palumbo

87'

A. Debenedetti← N. Radaelli

88'

G. Zaro← M. Caldara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaModena

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots10

6Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots10

3On Target4

10Off Target4

4Blocked2

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

495Total Passes290

431Accurate Passes224

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2