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Modena U19 vs Lecco U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Modena U19
Modena U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Lecco U19
Lecco U19
2/21/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Modena U1944%
×Draw22%
Lecco U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena U19
1.93
Lecco U19
1.66

Modena U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Modena U19
2.19
Lecco U19
1.93

allows per match

Modena U19
1.39
Lecco U19
1.67

finishing

Modena U19+0.00on par
Lecco U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena U19 ↓

Lecco U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Modena U19 or draw
66%
Modena U19 or Lecco U19
78%
Draw or Lecco U19
56%

Winning margin

Modena U19 wins by 2+
24%
Lecco U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Modena U19 1+ goals
85%
Modena U19 2+ goals
57%
Modena U19 3+ goals
30%
Lecco U19 1+ goals
81%
Lecco U19 2+ goals
49%
Lecco U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Modena U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Lecco U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Lecco U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena U19 attack 2.19 + Lecco U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lecco U19 attack 1.93 + Modena U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Modena U19 scores more
44%
level
22%
Lecco U19 scores more
34%

Modena U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Modena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modena U19 vs Lecco U19

Modena U19 beat Lecco U19 5-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 21, 2026.