Lecco U19 2–0 Modena U19: Result & Stats

Lecco U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Modena U19

10/25/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 6Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lecco U1943%

×Draw22%

Modena U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lecco U19Expected goals in this matchModena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.71

Lecco U19

1.93

Modena U19

1.71

Lecco U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

2.31

creates per match

1.55

1.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Lecco U19

2.31

Modena U19

1.55

allows per match

Lecco U19

1.88

Modena U19

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecco U19+0.00on par

Modena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecco U19 ↓

Modena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lecco U19 or draw

65%

Lecco U19 or Modena U19

78%

Draw or Modena U19

57%

Winning margin

Lecco U19 wins by 2+

24%

Modena U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lecco U19 1+ goals

85%

Lecco U19 2+ goals

57%

Lecco U19 3+ goals

30%

Modena U19 1+ goals

82%

Modena U19 2+ goals

51%

Modena U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lecco U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Modena U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecco U19 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Modena U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecco U19 attack 2.31 + Modena U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.93

Modena U19 attack 1.55 + Lecco U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lecco U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Modena U19 scores more

35%

Lecco U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lecco U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff