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Modbury Jets vs West Adelaide — South Australia State League 1 2021

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
0 – 1
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
4/16/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 2Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Modbury Jets51%
×Draw22%
West Adelaide27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
1.92
West Adelaide
1.33

Modbury Jets creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 47 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
2.55
West Adelaide
1.53

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.12
West Adelaide
1.28

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
73%
Modbury Jets or West Adelaide
78%
Draw or West Adelaide
49%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
29%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
85%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
57%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
30%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
74%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
38%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
66%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.92

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
51%
level
22%
West Adelaide scores more
27%

Modbury Jets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modbury Jets vs West Adelaide

West Adelaide beat Modbury Jets 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.