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Modbury Jets vs MetroStars — South Australia NPL 2026

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
MetroStars
MetroStars
J. Francesca 68'
H. Gow 2'
6/14/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 15Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets27%
×Draw21%
MetroStars51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
1.44
MetroStars
2.05

MetroStars creates 42% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 89 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
1.79
MetroStars
2.25

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.85
MetroStars
1.08

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
MetroStars+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

MetroStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
49%
Modbury Jets or MetroStars
79%
Draw or MetroStars
73%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
12%
MetroStars wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
76%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
42%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
18%
MetroStars 1+ goals
87%
MetroStars 2+ goals
61%
MetroStars 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
34%
MetroStars (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

MetroStars away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + MetroStars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

MetroStars attack 2.25 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
27%
level
21%
MetroStars scores more
51%

MetroStars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
H. Gow
17'
N. Ren
21'
M. Mullen
21'
M. Mullen
68'
J. Francesca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modbury Jets vs MetroStars

Modbury Jets and MetroStars drew 1-1 in South Australia NPL on June 14, 2024.

Goals: H. Gow (2'), J. Francesca (68').

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.