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MetroStars vs Modbury Jets — South Australia NPL 2026

MetroStars
MetroStars
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
J. Fortunatow 76'
H. Gow 45+3'
T. Visser 21'
Unknown 71'
7/26/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 19T.K. Shutter Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

MetroStars53%
×Draw21%
Modbury Jets26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MetroStars
2.09
Modbury Jets
1.40

MetroStars creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 47 away

creates per match

MetroStars
2.21
Modbury Jets
1.53

allows per match

MetroStars
1.26
Modbury Jets
1.98

finishing

MetroStars+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MetroStars ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

MetroStars or draw
74%
MetroStars or Modbury Jets
79%
Draw or Modbury Jets
47%

Winning margin

MetroStars wins by 2+
31%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

MetroStars 1+ goals
88%
MetroStars 2+ goals
62%
MetroStars 3+ goals
34%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
75%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
41%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

MetroStars (draw refunded)
67%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MetroStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MetroStars attack 2.21 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + MetroStars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

MetroStars scores more
53%
level
21%
Modbury Jets scores more
26%

MetroStars at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
T. Visser
45+3'
H. Gow
71'
76'
J. Fortunatow

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: MetroStars 3–1 Modbury Jets

MetroStars beat Modbury Jets 3-1 in South Australia NPL on July 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Visser (21'), H. Gow (45+3'), ? (71'), J. Fortunatow (76').

The match was played at T.K. Shutter Reserve in Adelaide.