Modbury Jets 3–2 Croydon Kings: Result & Stats

Modbury Jets

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Croydon Kings

F. Schimizzi 54'

J. O'Doherty 7'

M. Mullen 3'

A. Carle 90+4', 34'

3/8/2024

South Australia NPL · Round 3Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets37%

×Draw23%

Croydon Kings40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchCroydon Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.75

Modbury Jets

1.69

Croydon Kings

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 86 away

1.79

creates per match

1.64

1.85

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Modbury Jets

1.79

Croydon Kings

1.64

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.85

Croydon Kings

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Croydon Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Croydon Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

60%

Modbury Jets or Croydon Kings

77%

Draw or Croydon Kings

63%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

19%

Croydon Kings wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

82%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

50%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

24%

Croydon Kings 1+ goals

83%

Croydon Kings 2+ goals

52%

Croydon Kings 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

48%

Croydon Kings (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Croydon Kings away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Croydon Kings defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Croydon Kings attack 1.64 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

37%

level

23%

Croydon Kings scores more

40%

Croydon Kings at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Croydon Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Mullen

7'

J. O'Doherty

34'

A. Carle

54'

F. Schimizzi

90+3'

J. Wuol

90+3'

J. Wuol

90+4'

A. Carle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff