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Croydon Kings vs Modbury Jets — South Australia NPL 2026

Croydon Kings
Croydon Kings
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
J. Pasia 87', 14'
6/7/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 13Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Croydon Kings46%
×Draw22%
Modbury Jets32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croydon Kings
1.88
Modbury Jets
1.54

Croydon Kings creates 22% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 47 away

creates per match

Croydon Kings
1.78
Modbury Jets
1.53

allows per match

Croydon Kings
1.54
Modbury Jets
1.98

finishing

Croydon Kings+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croydon Kings ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Croydon Kings or draw
68%
Croydon Kings or Modbury Jets
78%
Draw or Modbury Jets
54%

Winning margin

Croydon Kings wins by 2+
25%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Croydon Kings 1+ goals
85%
Croydon Kings 2+ goals
56%
Croydon Kings 3+ goals
29%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
79%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
45%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Croydon Kings (draw refunded)
59%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croydon Kings at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croydon Kings attack 1.78 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.88

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + Croydon Kings defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Croydon Kings scores more
46%
level
22%
Modbury Jets scores more
32%

Croydon Kings at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Croydon Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Pasia
87'
J. Pasia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Croydon Kings vs Modbury Jets

Croydon Kings beat Modbury Jets 2-0 in South Australia NPL on June 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Pasia (14', 87').

The match was played at Regency Park Pitch 1 in Adelaide.